Renewing after the Oct 28 hike: what your payment really does

On October 28, 2026 the Bank of Canada raised the overnight target by 25 basis points to 2.50%, effective October 29. The press release sets the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%. The Governor's opening statement calls this the first increase since July 2023. The next scheduled decision is December 9, 2026.

Big-bank prime was 4.45%. From October 29 it is 4.70%, the overnight target plus the banks' usual 220 basis points. A variable contract written as a discount to prime moves with that prime. A fixed coupon stays at the rate in the contract until the term ends.

The tables below price three remaining balances, $400,000, $600,000, and $800,000, off the live rate card as of November 4, 2026. That payload's lastUpdated stamp is 2026-11-04. Every payment is modeled.

The broader 2026 cohort walkthrough lives in the renewal payment-shock article. What would have to happen to prime for a fixed coupon to catch a variable coupon, on a $500,000 file, is the late-2026 fixed versus variable decision. This page is the dated post-hike arithmetic on these three balances.

The assumptions

• Remaining amortization is 25 years, which is 300 monthly payments. The new term in the cash-over-term line is five years. The monthly payment is set by the balance, the rate, and the 25 years left. The five-year figure is that monthly gap times 60.
• Payments use the standard Canadian method: rates compound twice a year and are paid monthly over the 25 years left. Principal and interest only; property tax, insurance and fees are left out.
• Lender 1's variable on the November 4 card is 3.74%, and prime is 4.70%. That discount is 96 basis points under prime. The same discount on the prime that was 4.45% is 3.49%. The 3.49% row is that modeled back-cast.
• Bank 1's five-year fixed is 4.84%, the lowest five-year fixed among Bank 1 through Bank 5 on the card. Lender 1's three-year fixed is 4.59%. Big-bank variables run from 3.95% at Bank 3 to 4.37% at Bank 5. Those four coupons are the November 4 renewal prices on the card.

What the card showed on November 4

Figures are from ratellow.com/api/rates. Overnight, Bank Rate, and the deposit rate are the October 28 decision.

The calculator below opens on the $600,000 balance, the modeled 3.49% pre-hike variable, and Bank 1's 4.84% five-year fixed, with 25 years left.

$400,000 remaining

Modeled monthly payment. 25 years left. Rates compound twice a year.

The 25 basis point prime increase adds $53.11 a month on this balance when the discount stays at 96 basis points. Across a five-year term that is $3,186.60 of additional payments. Bank 1's five-year fixed costs $242.04 a month more than Lender 1's post-hike variable.

$600,000 remaining

Same method.

The hike adds $79.67 a month, which is $4,780.20 over 60 payments. Bank 1's five-year fixed costs $363.05 a month more than Lender 1's post-hike variable.

$800,000 remaining

Same method.

The hike adds $106.23 a month, which is $6,373.80 over 60 payments. Bank 1's five-year fixed costs $484.07 a month more than Lender 1's post-hike variable.

Dividing the $400,000 monthly increase of $53.11 by four puts that same 25 basis point move at about $13.28 a month per $100,000 of balance. On $500,000 the payment is $2,493.71 at 3.49% and $2,560.11 at 3.74%, the cent version of the rounded pair in the October 28 hike note.

What qualifying rate applies at renewal

For an uninsured mortgage that is being underwritten, the minimum qualifying rate is the greater of the contract rate plus 2 percentage points and 5.25%. That is the rule on OSFI's minimum qualifying rate page.

Renewing with the current lender stays off that prescribed test. An uninsured straight switch, with the same loan amount and the same remaining amortization, has been outside the prescribed minimum qualifying rate since November 21, 2024, under OSFI's straight-switch letter. That letter allows the unpaid balance to rise by up to $3,000 to cover related transaction costs. Taking equity out, or stretching the amortization, puts the file under the test. The lender receiving a switch can still run its own underwriting. The decision tree is stress test at renewal.

On the coupons in this note, contract plus 2 percentage points sits above the 5.25% floor. The qualifying payment below is modeled on the $600,000 balance with the same 25 years left. It is the payment at the qualifying rate.

The hike takes the variable qualifying rate from 5.49% to 5.74%, because the contract rose by 25 basis points. A file that is actually being underwritten can be run in the stress test calculator. A purchase starts from income in the affordability calculator.

What to do with the three balances

Match the renewal letter to a row, then read the row beside it. The gap between Lender 1's variable and Bank 1's five-year fixed is the price of that fixed coupon on November 4. The gap between 3.49% and 3.74% is what the October 29 prime change does to a 96 basis point discount that stays put. Shopping still moves the payment by more than the hike: on $600,000, Bank 5's 4.37% variable is $205.48 a month above Lender 1's 3.74%.

Open the renewal calculator on the balance from the statement. The letter's rate and the card's rate are separate until both are in writing.