After the October 28 rate hike: what changed for renewers, variable borrowers and buyers

Three days after the Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50%, prime is 4.70% at the big banks and fixed rates haven't risen further. On October 31, the big-bank 5-year fixed range is 4.84% to 5.19%, the same as on October 30. The best tracked 5-year fixed was 4.59% when it was last confirmed on October 30. Since the decision, new data show the economy stalled over the summer and more Ontario borrowers falling behind.

What are mortgage rates on October 31, 2026?

Mortgage rates come from the Ratellow rate card on October 31. Bond yields and the benchmark come from Bank of Canada data.

Did the banks raise prime?

Yes. The big banks announced it on the afternoon of October 28, and prime rose to 4.70% on October 29. Big-bank prime usually sits 2.20 points above the overnight rate, and it still does.

Why haven't fixed rates moved since the hike?

Bond yields barely changed. The 5-year Government of Canada yield closed at 3.62% on decision day and 3.58% on October 29, close to where it was the day before the decision.

The bigger move came earlier. The 5-year yield was 3.35% on September 1, so it's up about 0.23 points since then. Fixed rates rose through September and October as that happened.

What other news came out since October 28?

The economy looks weaker than the Bank expected.

On October 29, Statistics Canada reported that payroll employment fell by 49,600 (0.3%) in August. Average weekly earnings were $1,354.55, up 3.7% from a year earlier. There were 507,200 job vacancies.

On October 30, StatCan reported that real GDP was essentially flat in August, the second flat month in a row. Its early estimate for September is a 0.1% decline.

StatCan's monthly data point to about 0.3% growth in the third quarter. By our math, that's roughly 1.2% at an annual rate. The Bank was tracking about 2% when it raised rates. Official Q3 numbers come out November 30.

CMHC's Fall 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report came out on October 27, the day before the decision. In Ontario, 0.32% of mortgages were 90 or more days behind in Q2 2026. CMHC says that's approaching levels last seen around 2008. In the Toronto area, the delinquency rate rose to 0.33% from 0.24% a year earlier.

CMHC expects delinquencies to keep rising in Ontario, B.C. and Atlantic Canada through mid-2027. It also says the largest renewal shock has likely passed, though people renewing five-year terms from 2021 still face higher payments.

The same report found that 41% of mortgages newly extended in July 2026 were variable. Those borrowers pay more each time prime goes up.

We found no new mortgage rules or guidance from OSFI or the federal government between October 28 and 31.

The Bank says it may need to raise again. The newest data show slower growth. Its next decision is December 9.

What does this mean if you're renewing?

Your new rate matters more than the hike. Many people renewing now took five-year terms in 2021.

Take a $450,000 balance with 20 years left, renewing from a 2021 rate of 1.99%. Payments use semi-annual compounding.

The gap between 4.59% and 5.19% is about $145 a month, or roughly $8,700 over a five-year term. Getting a second quote is worth the effort.

To compare your current payment with a renewal offer, enter both rates here.

Switching lenders can be easier than people expect. Since November 21, 2024, OSFI hasn't required a stress test for an uninsured straight switch at renewal, as long as you keep the same amount and amortization. Our no-stress-test renewal guide lists the conditions.

Before you move, run the fees through the switch-cost calculator to see whether the lower rate still saves you money. The switch vs. stay guide covers the rest.

Should you lock in a variable rate now?

Only if paying more now for certainty is worth it to you. On $500,000 over 25 years, moving from 3.74% variable to a 4.59% five-year fixed (the best tracked rate on October 30) raises the payment from about $2,560 to $2,792. That's $232 more a month.

For the variable rate to cost as much as that fixed rate, it would have to average about 0.85 points higher over the five years. That's a bit more than three more quarter-point hikes, kept in place for the whole term. This is a simplified estimate.

The Bank says it may raise again but hasn't committed. If your variable payment stays the same, check your trigger rate before December 9. Our fixed vs. variable renewal guide goes through the trade-offs.

How does the hike change what you can afford to buy?

It raises the rate you qualify at if you choose variable. For uninsured mortgages, OSFI's stress test uses the greater of 5.25% or your contract rate plus 2 points.

To see the rate and payment a lender will test you at, try the stress test calculator.

There's some good news for buyers. In September, CREA's national figures showed 4.9 months of inventory and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 48.8%. The MLS Home Price Index was down 3.4% from a year earlier. That gives buyers more choice and more room to negotiate.

To find a price range that fits your income at today's rates, start with the affordability calculator.

What dates should you watch?

On November 17, CREA releases October resale data. On November 30, StatCan publishes official Q3 GDP. On December 9, the Bank of Canada makes its next rate decision.

For the decision itself, read our October 28 post.