# What is the projected payment impact for the 2026 benchmark cohort?

> A typical $500,000 mortgage renewing in 2026 faces a monthly increase of approximately $500 (reflecting a shift to normalized 4.45% prime-based environments).

Category: Renewal
Last verified: 2026-04-14
Source: https://ratellow.com/faqs/renewal/what-is-the-projected-payment-impact-for-the-2026-benchmark-cohort

## Answer
| Renewal Scenario | Original Rate | 2026 Rate | Monthly Payment Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Fixed → Fixed** | 2.0% | 4.29% | +$550/mo (+22%) |
| **Fixed → Variable** | 2.0% | 4.45% | +$400/mo (+16%) |
| **Variable → Variable** | 3.5% | 4.45% | −$15/mo (−1%) |
| **Variable → Fixed** | 3.5% | 4.29% | +$200/mo (+8%) |

**Data Summary:**

- Average Fixed-Rate Increase: 15-20% payment jump.
- Average Variable-Rate Relief: 5-7% decrease (if floating).
- Break-Even Rate: ~4.15% for mid-term stability.

## Related guide
- https://ratellow.com/guides/negotiating-with-current-lender

## Sources
- OSFI exempts uninsured mortgage straight switches from the prescribed MQR — https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/guidance/guidance-library/osfi-exempts-uninsured-mortgage-straight-switches-prescribed-mqr-implements-portfolio-lti-limits
- Residential Mortgage Underwriting Practices — OSFI B-20 — https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/guidance/guidance-library/residential-mortgage-underwriting-practices-procedures-guideline-2017#1.0
- Mortgage Loan Insurance — CMHC — https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/consumers/home-buying/mortgage-loan-insurance-for-consumers
- Renewing Your Mortgage — FCAC — https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html#toc0